If we look at what has been happening in parts of Asia where there have been government imposed limits on family size. Singapore is now looking at a fertility rate of 1.1 which is so far below the replacement rate that there is little likelihood they will be able to pull it back up again. So what does this mean? Well is means that we are looking at a population that is essentially dying! And what will happen as the aging population ceases to be able to work and there are not enough young people to sustain care for this population? I shudder to think, in a society where abortion and infanticide was the means of choice to reduce their population it does not take much mental gymnastics to imagine a viable means for decreasing the aging population.
When we talk about replacement rates we are referring to the number of children per woman, on average, necessary for a population to replace itself. That is, for a society to maintain a level in the work force to sustain the economy, and in societies that are dependent on government funded programs to care for those who cannot care for themselves to sustain the tax base to run said programs. If the fertility rate falls below replacement rate then there is cause for concern.
In a recent New York Times article "As Populations Change a chance for younger Nations" by Ted C. Fishman author of “Shock of Gray: The Aging of the World’s Population and How It Pits Young Against Old, Child Against Parent, Worker Against Boss, Company Against Rival and Nation Against Nation,” outlines for us some of these concerns. One of them is how to care for our aging population. In other words if our younger population is out numbered by the aging populations who will provide for the care necessary for them? The other concern is the economy. An aging workforce is a workforce that will struggle to keep up in a global economy. "The globalization of the economy is accelerating because the world is rapidly aging, and at the same time the pace of global aging is quickened by the speed and scope of globalization. These intertwined dynamics also bear on the international competition for wealth and power. The high costs of keeping our aging population healthy and out of poverty has caused the United States and other rich democracies to lose their economic and political footing. Countries on the rise amass wealth and geopolitical clout by refusing to bear those costs. Older countries lose work to younger countries."
Immigration while an immediate aid for declining fertility rates in rapidly aging countries, in turn harm those countries from which young people are emigrating. Case in point, says Fishman is Spain and Ecuador. Of course, immigration for one country means emigration from another — and an older population left behind. Spain, which rivals Japan as the world’s oldest country, was for much of the 20th century one of the youngest nations in the West. Before 2000, it had virtually no foreign-born residents. Today, nearly 12 percent of Spain’s population is foreign born. Among the arrivals are hundreds of thousands of Ecuadoreans (many of them female caregivers for elderly Spanish) whose absence at home increases the median age of Ecuador’s population. More than one in 10 Ecuadoreans has left in search of work, and the loss of so many of the country’s youngest and most enterprising workers means Ecuador has little chance of developing. Recently, its president initiated the Welcome Home Program to lure emigrants back with tax breaks and money to start businesses.
So as people in the environmental movements continue to cry about the need for population control and tell developing nations to forgo industrialization because they need to be responsible for the environment, as the Al Gore's and James Cameron's tell us all to live with less and have less children while they own millions of dollars worth of property and vehicles for families of two, let us spend some time thinking of the legacy we will be leaving behind! I suppose if one loves nature more than humanity the idea of less humans and more nature is not so bad, and for some of these people that is exactly what is the goal. Let us rid the world of the scourge that is humanity so that nature can thrive!
In their rush to decrease the rate of growth of populations nations have used various methods. It is agreed that some of the main reasons for a decline in population replacement and of aging populations are the following: growth in wealth, urbanization (it is harder to have big families in urban areas because the higher cost of living), increase in family planning through contraception and abortion, and more women going onto higher education and entering the work force and waiting to have children until after they have established a career. Barbara Kay argues Read more: http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/10/20/barbara-kay-the-coming-demographic-crisis-%E2%80%94-too-much-school-not-enough-babies/#ixzz13UNm5aDr
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